Automotive Trends Report | Q1 2024 (2024)

Our Take: Inventory has vastly improved, and we are continuing to experience the shift from a seller’s to a buyer’s market. Quarter one results show that in true dealership fashion, managers and teams are adapting to the changing conditions and have a positive outlook on the year ahead.

F&I PVR

Automotive Trends Report | Q1 2024 (1)

Product Income Versus Finance Reserve

Business Managers continue to capture F&I profitability, but are slowly changing how. In the last four months alone, we've seen product income make up about 3% more of F&I PVR as compared to finance income. We see this as a positive trend for two reasons:

  • Product income better supports the customer lifecycle by helping to bring customers back to the dealership through the service department.
  • Finance reserve can be risky to rely on as income, because when a customer pays off a loan early, the dealership gets charged back by the lender.

PERCENTAGE OF F&I PVR 72-MONTH TERM

Automotive Trends Report | Q1 2024 (2)

Incentives and Process Improvement Benefits Front PVR

Front PVR has begun to level out when compared to last year’s decline from March onwards. However, this metric is still performing far better than in 2019. The leveling off we're beginning to see likely stems from an increase in incentives and improved sales processes.

JM&A Group Tip: If inventory levels continue to rise, that will put significant pressure on Front PVR, which could result in declines throughout this year. In preparation, it’s important to focus on your processes and sales techniques as competition will get tougher with more options available on dealership lots.

FRONT PVR

Automotive Trends Report | Q1 2024 (3)

Vehicle Service Contracts Continue to Be a Value-Add

Year-over-year results demonstrate how VSC penetration levels are improving after a slight decline in the back half of last year. With growth in Q1, is it safe to say we’re seeing signs of normalization taking place?

VSC

Automotive Trends Report | Q1 2024 (4)

Our Take: We are keeping an eye on VSC sales compared to 2023 and 2019. Concerns regarding affordability remain. Interest rates are still high, car insurance premiums continue to rise, and many customers are working on a tight budget. From an F&I perspective, a service contract can have dual benefits: the value that service contracts create for the customer and the opportunity for finance managers to drive PVR.

PPD Levels Emerge From a 2023 Decline

Similar to VSC levels, PPD has emerged from a downward trend for much of the latter half of 2023 to now almost matching the number of products per deal in March 2023. This is also following a similar line to PVR. Put simply, dealers are selling more products to make more money, showcasing their constant agility in an evolving market.

Our Take: As this first quarter trends in a more positive direction, we anticipate this number to keep going up if dealers continue tailoring their sales process to meet customer needs.

“Record high interest rates are a top concern for dealers and consumers. The industry is focusing on a customer-centric approach and reserve is lessening over time. A focus on product is timely so car buyers with affordability concerns can plan for a more fixed cost to own their vehicle, granting stability in a time of economic uncertainty.” - Caroline Urrutia, Sr. Advisor of Retail Strategy at JM&A Group

PPD

Automotive Trends Report | Q1 2024 (5)

Buyer Adoption of GAP Increases with Affordability Concerns

Another positive Q1 trend can be seen in GAP levels with three consecutive months of increased penetration. When inventory was low, many consumers paid over MSRP for their vehicles, creating an environment for negative equity when they trade in their vehicles. Now, record amounts of negative equity affect the industry, reaching an average of $6,064 in Q4 2023.

JM&A Group Tip: It is far easier to explain to a customer today why they should consider GAP products compared with two years ago when people had large amounts of equity because used car values were so high. To help ease affordability concerns, consider evaluating your team’s process for approaching GAP sales and make sure their techniques are effective, helpful and encouraging for consumers.

GAP

Automotive Trends Report | Q1 2024 (6)

Automotive Trends Report | Q1 2024 (2024)

FAQs

Automotive Trends Report | Q1 2024? ›

Key Automotive Trends in Q1 2024

What is the forecast for automotive sales in 2024? ›

May is typically a good month for sales volume, and May 2024 did not disappoint, with good volume and the best sales pace so far in 2024 despite stubbornly high auto loan rates. The Cox Automotive full-year forecast for 2024 stands at 15.7 million and will be reviewed at the end of June.

What is the auto sales forecast for 2025? ›

Key Takeaways. Global light vehicle sales will increase by 2% to 3% over 2024 and 2025 (to over 90 million), mainly supported by growth in Southeast Asia and India. U.S. and Europe may lag global growth, while China's long-term potential remains.

What will the automotive industry look like in 2025? ›

By 2025, 25% of cars sold will have electric engines, up from 5% today. But most of those will be hybrids, and 95% of cars will still rely on fossil fuels for at least part of their power. That means automakers will need to make internal combustion engines more efficient to comply with new standards.

What are consumers looking for in cars? ›

"Fuel efficiency" and "Safety" are the top two answers among U.S. consumers in our survey on the subject of "Purchase criteria for cars". Find this and more survey data on purchase criteria for cars in the U.S. in our Consumer Insights tool.

What is the trend in cars in 2024? ›

Car prices remain elevated in 2024 due to inflation but are showing initial signs of decreasing as inventory stabilizes. Car shoppers can expand their options to get better deals. Consider buying a used car instead of a new one, getting an EV instead of an ICE vehicle, or waiting longer for a deal to come up.

Will vehicle prices drop in 2024? ›

Experts predict that used car prices will continue to fall slightly over the rest of the year3. Expect to see used SUVs and sedans experience the largest price decreases in the upcoming months, which is consistent with early 2024 trends. These price decreases won't be dramatic, though.

What are the mega trends in the automotive industry? ›

The five automotive megatrends — autonomous, electrification, enriched cabins, connectivity, and zonal architectures — are transforming the automotive industry with a significant impact on memory and storage requirements for use in vehicles.

What are the predictions for the automotive industry? ›

The Used Car Market Takes Center Stage

In 2023, it saw a 3-4% increase, with sales of 94-96 million vehicles, and is projected to grow by 5-6% in 2024. The B2C segment is becoming more dominant, and it is expected to exceed 50% market share in APAC and North America, indicating a shift towards a more organized market.

What is the trend in auto sales in the US? ›

US Total Vehicle Sales is at a current level of 16.22M, up from 16.01M last month and up from 16.21M one year ago. This is a change of 1.29% from last month and 0.06% from one year ago.

What is the trend in Gen Z car buying? ›

Generation Z's (born 1996-2012) preference for traditional, face-to-face car buying experiences is notable. Despite growing up in the digital age, an astounding 80% of Gen Z individuals prefer in-person transactions (cars.com).

What factors predict car sales? ›

Economic factors are perhaps the most crucial factor affecting car sales. They include interest rates, unemployment rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), disposable income, and exchange rates.

What demographic buys the most cars? ›

The age groups that purchase new vehicles at the highest rates--on average almost 7 out of 100 people per year--are the 35 to 49 and the 50 to 54 year olds.

What is the EV sales forecast for 2024? ›

In 2024, electric car sales in the United States are projected to rise by 20% compared to the previous year, translating to almost half a million more sales, relative to 2023. Despite reporting of a rocky end to 2023 for electric cars in the United States, sales shares are projected to remain robust in 2024.

Is 2024 a good year to lease a car? ›

In 2024, leasing is once again growing in popularity as drivers look to avoid the high interest rates that come with buying. There are also reasons why the dealers and car manufacturers themselves are fans of leasing. Leasing keeps customers coming back to the dealership, more so than selling does.

What is the outlook for the US auto market? ›

For 2024, we expect light vehicle sales to grow 3.7% above last year's level, rising to 16.1 million units. Growth is expected to slow relative to 2023 as the initial post-pandemic bounce-back recedes and elevated interest rates remain a constraint on sales activity through most of the year.

How big is the global automotive market in 2024? ›

The global automotive industry size is calculated at USD 4,359.98 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach around USD 6,678.28 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.66% from 2024 to 2032.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Dan Stracke

Last Updated:

Views: 5912

Rating: 4.2 / 5 (63 voted)

Reviews: 94% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Dan Stracke

Birthday: 1992-08-25

Address: 2253 Brown Springs, East Alla, OH 38634-0309

Phone: +398735162064

Job: Investor Government Associate

Hobby: Shopping, LARPing, Scrapbooking, Surfing, Slacklining, Dance, Glassblowing

Introduction: My name is Dan Stracke, I am a homely, gleaming, glamorous, inquisitive, homely, gorgeous, light person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.